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Executive Summary
The 17 June Islamabad Memorandum has broken down and the Strait of Hormuz is now subject to two opposite official declarations: CENTCOM states the Strait is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit and that Iran does not control it, while the IRGC Navy declared closure on 12 July and Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says passage is not currently possible. Neither declaration governs the water. The operative judgement is that the Strait is de jure open and de facto closed to the compliant, insured segment (MODERATE to HIGH confidence): Kpler recorded about 22 crossings on 14 July against roughly 147 pre-war, the US-assisted southern Omani corridor all but disappeared at the weekend, and the JMIC has held the Strait at SEVERE since 7 July.
What the United States closed on 14 July is Iran, not the Strait. CENTCOM confirmed US forces resumed the naval blockade at 4pm ET against vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas; when the same measure ran from 13 April to 29 May, CENTCOM stated it would not impede freedom of navigation for transits to and from non-Iranian ports (HIGH confidence). Oil still moves but is leaving the visible market: the US Energy Department reported over 8 million barrels transiting on Sunday under escort, within Gulf flows of about 15 million barrels per day, while Bloomberg tracking shows six sanctioned supertankers, around 12 million barrels, running dark this week. The binding constraint is war-risk and transit appetite, set by underwriters and owners rather than either capital, and Iran's tolerance of near-total closure from February to June shows commercial logic is not a floor. A formal notice to mariners, flagged by CENTCOM alongside the blockade, remains pending; if it carries transit conditions it would be the first US instrument bearing directly on the Strait itself.
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